AFC West Preview
Kristian Wiles
September 12, 2009
Posted under AFC West, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Summary: If you have been following this site for the past couple months you know how I feel about the direction that Denver is heading (if you are just catching up, it isn’t great). The new head coach Josh McDaniels has shown inexperience so far as a rookie. He chased the franchise QB out of town and settled for Kyle Orton. The offense looks less potent and the defense, while improved, still has a way to go to stop good teams. All of this means that it will be tough for Denver to win games this season.
Who to Watch: QB Kyle Orton is going to catch heat if the Broncos don’t do well, even if that heat should be on McDaniels for putting him in an offense not suited to his skills. He isn’t Jay Culter or Matt Cassel (the guy McDaniels really wanted) but he does have experience on winning teams. Because all of those teams were top defensive, run first Chicago teams, the Broncos and Orton will have to adjust to be successful.
Fantasy: Orton will have more shots throwing the ball then he did in Chicago and will probably be playing from behind a lot which also equals more passing attempts. The Broncos highest ranking fantasy receiver, Brandon Marshall, is a little shaky given his inability to work with his new coach and a different QB. Look for WR Eddie Royal to have another good year. RB Knowshon Moreno could have a productive season if he can get the carries with Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan sharing the load.
Projected Finish: 5-11, 3rd in the division
Kansas City Chiefs
Summary: Lots of changes in Kansas City this off-season but unlike in Denver the Chiefs seem to be handling transition really well. Even the last minute firing of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey hasn’t met much criticism. All of this goodwill for new GM Scott Pioli and head coach Todd Haley will buy them time as the team rebuilds and develops players. The pressure free atmosphere is why many have picked KC to make the biggest leap in the division and why I see them winning as many games this season as they did in the last two years combined.
Who to Watch: I know that Cassell was the big offseason pickup for KC but I think the defense is going to dictate the fate of the 2009 Chiefs. The shift to the 3-4 defense is going to take some time but the young players on the line could jumpstart progress with their play. Draft picks DE Tyson Jackson and DT Alex Magee have played well in the preseason and look to contribute as rookies. However, 2nd year player Glenn Dorsey might have a harder time making the shift as a better fit in the 4-3 scheme. If the defense can be successful early, the Chiefs offense will have more of a margin for error this year.
Fantasy: QB Matt Cassell looks like he will start in the opener despite the knee injury he suffered during the preseason. I see him have a solid fantasy year as the playmaker on offense. Larry Johnson is a dangerous weapon if healthy and a bargain because of past injuries that have dropped his draft ranking.
Projected Finish: 6-10, 2nd in the division
Oakland Raiders
Summary: You know you’re dysfunctional if your coaches get physical and someone ends up with a busted jaw (allegedly of course). This team just can’t figure it out. Their draft was suspect, the head coach Tom Cable’s control is questionable, and they don’t have enough talent and experience on either side of the ball to be competitive. However, if QB Russell can make the improvements that the Raiders have been working on, the offense might be better than expected.
Who to Watch: The Raiders have lots of storylines but, unfortunately, not too many are positive. JaMarcus Russell can be that positive light in the sea of black and silver if he can start to realize the potential he was said to have when the team drafted him number one overall in 2007. He has worked on his footwork, delivery, and consistency in looking off defenders. I am pulling for him but this may be a now or never situation with Oakland.
Fantasy: The running back duo of Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden should put up some good numbers with more and more of the load going to McFadden. TE Zach Miller should have a big third season (as he did during his second season) even on a team that isn’t going to win a lot of games.
Projected Finish: 4-12, 4th in the division
San Diego Chargers
Summary: Lots of excitement in San Diego this year. Tomlinson is coming back from injury more motivated than ever and Rivers is hoping to continue the success that he has built over the last couple season as he develops into a premiere QB in this league. With uncertainty at the top of the AFC, many have picked the Chargers as a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl. Like Arizona in 2008, San Diego will have to prove itself outside of their weaker division to earn credibility among the experts.
Who to Watch: LaDainian Tomlinson and his health have received much of the focus in San Diego leading up to the season but the Chargers have options at running back. The bigger question in my mind is with the return of their leader on defense, LB Shawne Merriman. His presence was missed last season by Shaun Phillips and other playmakers on the San Diego D who are freed up to make plays when Merriman is on the field. With the weight of high personal and team expectations on his shoulders, Merriman can rise to the challenge or buckle under the pressure. I predict big things from the star linebacker.
Fantasy: Antonio Gates and Phillip Rivers could arguably be ranked number one in their positions on the draft board. RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles will split carries but both should have opportunities to score. Tomlinson’s situation is well documented but even if he is on the decline he will score fantasy points.
Projected Finish: 11-5, 1st in the division
